Bet on Player Development
By betting on the 'right' things
“The tendency to judge a decision based on its outcome, rather than its quality.”
-Annie Duke
The above quote is how she defines the term ‘resulting’ in her book, Thinking in Bets.
We see it everywhere. And it programs us due to the overload of exposure we receive. Turn on ESPN and they are talking about how that interception cost the Dolphins the game. Or the Seahawks the Super Bowl…
The Seahawks lost the game after the pass resulted in an interception, but Duke points out that the outcome could have been different. Former coach and play-caller of the interception, Pete Carroll, lets us in on the thought process, and through learning what he thinks, you gather… It was probably the ‘right’ call if you don’t strictly look at the outcome.
Here was the essence of Duke’s breakdown:
An aggregate of all of the data from NFL plays in recent history revealed a 1–2% chance that a pass play in that situation would result in an interception. An incomplete pass or touchdown were better odds. An incomplete pass uses barely any of the 26 seconds remaining and stops the clock. It’s basically a free play and still time for 2 more.
A run play that falls short ticks precious time off the clock and allows time for only one more play. So, it’s just math. Risk a 1-2% chance of an interception in exchange for 3 plays instead of 2.
One thing you can’t argue? Pete Carroll’s call took courage. And we need more courage and less ‘resulting’ in the player development space…
If You’re Scared, Don’t Coach Developing Minds
Rapper, Ice Cube, says profoundly:
“If you’re scared, go to church”
I say, if you’re scared, don’t coach hockey below the NHL. There’s no need for risk-averse, turnover-free, fear-based play if you’re in the business of developing hockey players. In fact, the opposite is probably true:
Why do we talk about turnovers with 10u players?
Because we, like the commentators on ESPN, have programmed ourselves into ‘resulting’. But here’s the thing, we can’t have our cake and eat it too as youth coaches… If we’re starving for creative players and the 18u and junior coaches complain that they inherit ‘hockey robots’, then we have to change our approach. We need to develop creative hockey players.
How?
We have to throw caution to the wind…
“You can be cautious or you can be creative, but there's no such thing as a cautious creative.”
– George Lois
Empowering players to be courageous on the puck needs to be the aim, winning 10u games by playing safe hockey is the antithesis to development.
Don’t Result, Especially in 10u
There's a problem, because the quality of the decision should not be ruled by the quality of its outcome. Those two things are independent.
Fear is a killer. It creates disease in the body, the mind and in our context, player development.
At 10u, the thought behind the play is more important than the execution. There are errors of:
Choice (perception/action, missed affordance, misread, losing dominoes, etc)
Execution (too much weight on a pass, didn’t sauce it, etc)
At 10u, execution errors SHOULD be fine. And with me they are.
Stark examples make clear points, so here is one of those… This play only happens at 18 because he tried it and wasn’t punished for it at 10 and his college coach didn’t yell at him the first time he attempted it at practice freshman year:
We played a few pucks to the middle of the ice this weekend (at the time I wrote this section, before I was no longer the 10u coach). From bad ice to good ice, from congestion to space… and they didn’t connect.
And when players returned to the bench, they were talked to and it was suggested that they not make those plays again.
Not by me…
Every intermission and sometimes right after they were talked to, I would come off the bench, get down on their level, and tell them that it was a great play and they were only getting ‘told not to’ based on the result.
I tell them they made a courageous look and choice to play to the middle and eventually that pass will connect and work.
Maybe not at 10u, maybe not next year but the habits of playing to space regardless of result need to be in place for a player to develop beyond where most players in our area of the country go… Most are done after high school because real hockey players can play to space.
I’m trying to develop some of those with the 10u team I coach…
If you focus on their choice and intent, you’ll care less about the result. What they think at the developing age and what they are ‘trying’ to do is more important than the result. We have to care less about things that don’t matter and don’t translate up as these kids grow.
Courage over Result
It's gonna be really hard for you to learn, if you're a ‘resultor.’ If you're just looking at when things go poorly and you think, ‘They are bad decision makers.’ It's a terrible thing to do as a leader and as a manager. You're going to crush innovation if you ‘result’ with your employees.
-John Greathouse
We have to throw out the results. Scores at 10u don’t matter.
Courage does.
Safe plays don’t matter at 10u.
Courage does.
Turnovers don’t matter at 10u.
Courage does.
Force says, ‘Don’t do that, they might score in this 10u game today that doesn’t have any bearing on your future success as a player.’
Power says, ‘Do it again, because it’s what’s best for you long term.’
Youth Hockey Scores Should be Similar to NLL Scores
I got some flack on X for posting this:
Here’s the added context that everyone didn’t ask for because they were too busy labeling me a lunatic.
Courage to take defenders on 1v1 at 12u and play through the middle will result in turnovers, a portion of those will end up in the back of the net
Courage to make a creative pass at 12u will result in turnovers that lead to odd man rushes against, a portion of those will end up in the back of the net
Courage to carry pucks into the zone and make ‘cute’ but ‘player developing’ plays at the bluelines will result in additional turnovers, a portion of those will end up in the back of the net
Courage to maintain puck possession as a 5-man unit at 12u via side changes, cutbacks, escapes, tight support passes, etc will result in turnovers… Some of those will end up in the back of your net
On the flip side, when they do execute at 12u, they’ll create more chances for and score more goals. So the games will be higher scoring.
Games will be higher scoring when you value development over winning. Look at scores from the 2018-2020 Chicago Steel and the current Sherwood Park Crusaders… Two teams that put player development over everything. You’ll see more 8-7 games than 2-1 games.
“Whatever you do to win the game hurts the development of the player.”
-Ted Kroeten
Excellent stuff, Drew. Always amazes me that youth coaches expect stellar outcomes regardless of the process.